Ascend Analytics Renewables & Storage Workshop | June 20-21, 2023

Energy Resource Procurement

Capture the full value of renewables and storage

Utilities, retailers, and Community Choice Aggregators turn to Ascend Analytics to implement efficient RFO/RFP processes that support intelligent and defendable risk-based decisions on behalf of their customers. Ascend provides end-to-end support for the energy procurement process, including a detailed focus on ensuring the process captures the value of renewables and storage under the system dynamics of today and the future.

Managing the RFP/RFO Process

Ascend offers full-service procurement with an experienced team of analysts who have helped our customers procure over 10 million megawatt-hours per year of renewable energy and 12,000 MWh of battery storage capacity. Our support services include defining the procurement need, administering and hosting the RFO/RFP process, evaluating projects, and supporting during negotiations.

Managing the RFP/RFO Process

Ascend's industry-leading software suite provides the capability to select the best resources through evaluation of demand- and supply-side resources on a level playing field. This includes demand response, energy efficiency, behind-the-meter solar and storage, electric vehicle smart charging, as well as utility-scale renewables, storage, and traditional thermal resources. Offtakers get access to Ascend's proprietary market price forecasts that capture the impacts from accelerating renewable and battery adoption, such as increasing price volatility, changing price shapes, and real-time price spikes.

RFO/RFP Administration & Process Automation

Ascend leveraged its extensive experience in energy procurement and connections in the industry to develop a highly automated and refined RFO/RFP process. Our full administration services include:

  • Supporting the offtaker in drafting RFO/RFP documents (protocol, offer form, etc)
  • Creating a dedicated website containing solicitation material, key information, bidder registration form, & questions & submission portals
  • Marketing RFO/RFP on one of the industry's largest databases of reputable project developers
  • Managing bidder engagement and communication using a unique RFO/RFP email addressd
  • Automated collection and error checking of received bids
  • Automated processes for rapid integration into PowerSIMM, with valuation results turned around in three to four weeks from QAQC
Process Automation for RFOs

Bids Evaluation and Scoring

Ascend’s evaluation captures both the project economics and the ESG impact of projects.PowerSIMM is used to evaluate demand- and supply-side resources on a level playing field and capture the economic risk by simulating performance across a range of possible futures. Energy or capacity normalized metrics are used to account for projects of different sizes, technologies, and commercial operational dates. Ascend also collaborates with the offtaker to select scoring criteria for the ESG impact of a project.

Economic Assessment & Qualitative Assessment Chart

Our approach captures the value of flexible resources for day-ahead and real-time (sub-hourly) markets for energy and ancillary services. Ascend's proprietary forecasts are used to simulate nodal prices to account for basis risks and renewable saturation in specific areas. Net present values of revenues and costs from the different streams are represented and projects are ranked based on the metric of interest.

Projects Economic Value Streams

Projects Economic Value Streams Chart

Risk-Based Decision Making with Ascend

Signing PPA contracts can be a risky engagement, locking in purchase obligations for extended time periods. While perfect foresight remains impossible, Ascend's valuation approach assesses and mitigates the primary risks:

Historical Bias

Ascend's forecasting approach accounts for the evolving market dynamics associated with increasing renewable generation while remaining firmly grounded in long-run economic equilibrium theory. This approach prevents “over-anchoring” to historical price behavior while also not overweighing the present or near-term future.

Basis Risk

Ascend's models simulate nodal prices and their correlations with weather and renewable output, thus accounting for price depression at geographic locations with high renewable penetrations. This approach avoids overvaluing resources at saturated locations.

Variability

Ascend's stochastic modeling accounts for the variation in renewable generation at sub-hourly, hourly, daily, seasonal, and annual time-steps, thus providing a valuation under a realistic range of conditions rather than relying on approximations based on “average” conditions. This approach allows for quantifying potential variation in revenues, market exposure, loss of load events, carbon emissions, and other important factors affected by the variable output from renewables.

    The Ascend Advantage

    Ready Analytics

    "Ready to Roll" analytics and preconfigured models for any region or node

    Insights

    Critical insights for portfolio management in a high renewables future

    Expertise

    Our expertise includes planning, valuation, risk management & ISO operations