Webinars

Power market dynamics are changing at a fundamental level as renewables and storage increasingly become price-setters, and current models must account for these new variables. With prices becoming increasingly weather-dependent, renewable capture rates are declining and dispatchable resources are increasingly operating in a way that reflects opportunity costs rather than production costs. This webinar will discuss the changing market dynamics of the energy transition, key considerations for long-term forecasts, and how Ascend's Opportunity Cost Forecasting Framework address these considerations.

Meeting clean energy targets has set in motion an industry move from annual to hourly RECs and emissionality. The transition to hourly analysis of clean power poses both significant opportunity and risks as we make irreversible investment decisions today.

Surplus solar in the South West has turned the WECC upside down to create a new North and South divide, where the South has become the low-cost center of power and the North has some of the most consistent high power prices in the country. Beyond the North to South divide, competing proposals for day-ahead market expansion create additional uncertainty. Join this webinar to learn Ascend’s view on how the WECC power market will unfold and where and what resources are needed to meet new load in the wake of large thermal retirements. Key questions discussed:

•       How will the divide in market prices react to unprecedented load growth?  

•       How will the WECC decide to increase cooperation in the region and create price transparency?

•       How will Utilities navigate the new market landscape - join CAISO’s Extended Day-Ahead Market (EDAM), join SPP Markets+, or continue with business as usual?

•       What are the strategic implications and the regional-specific consequences for developers and utilities related to these decisions?

ERCOT is experiencing quickly rising demand, but ERCOT’s electrical isolation from the rest of the country makes it more susceptible to volatility and scarcity conditions that result from a delicate supply and demand balance.

Registration Is Open!

The Ascend Summit explores the opportunities of the energy transition in today's power sector from policy, economic, capital investments, and power procurement perspectives. The event brings together electric power experts from across the US to offer their insights into wholesale electricity markets, resource planning, green energy purchasing, battery storage, and merchant portfolio management in a rapidly changing energy landscape.

Time: 11:00am - 12:00pm MT

Speakers: Adam M. Hise & Gary Dorris

March 30th, 2022 | Derisking & Deploying Merchant Storage

Ascend Analytics has supported the financing of over 20 GW of merchant storage assets and is commercializing novel risk transfer offerings to permit efficient project financing.

In this webinar, we will discuss:

• How lenders and investors characterize storage revenue potential across competitive markets;
• How financiers and insurers manage the operational risk of battery dispatch with risk-optimized strategies; and
• How revenue insurance can support efficient financing of merchant projects with revenue risk transfer

CAISO had an anomalously mild 2023 with lower-than-expected power prices and volatility, driven by abundant hydro generation, cool summer weather, and low gas prices. However, load growth and increasingly aggressive clean energy procurement mandates are running up against clogged interconnection queues and rising project costs.

Speakers:

Gary Dorris, PhD, CEO

Brent Nelson, PhD, Managing Director of Markets & Strategy

February 9th, 2023 | From Valuation to Operation: Capturing Opportunities with Storage & Hybrids

11am - 12pm MT

Speakers: Gary Dorris, PhD & Allison Weis, PhD

To capture the maximum project value of storage and hybrids in live operations, state-of-the-art adaptive forecasting of market conditions and continuous optimization of bid curves provide a competitive edge over traditional heuristic or fundamental trading strategies.

In this webinar, we will demonstrate the performance of Ascend’s proprietary algorithms across use cases for storage and renewables in ERCOT and CAISO. We will discuss overall strategy formulation, assessment, and benchmarking, as well as detailed examples of “a day in the life” of these systems to build understanding of the benefits of active SOC management and comprehensive market forecasting. We’ll bring to life how storage and hybrids realize and can exceed predicted asset valuation.

As solar buildout grows in ERCOT, critical grid conditions are increasingly becoming associated with sunset net load ramps. Whether wind generation falters or rises with the setting sun determines the magnitude of the daily ramp and is the key driver for ERCOT price dynamics. As a result, wind can either cause ‘superduck’ ramps or squash price volatility. In this webinar, we will provide an overview of Ascend’s latest ERCOT forecast and the outlook for market forwards, scarcity, surpluses, and clean energy economics.

September 14, 2022 | Inflation Reduction Act: Fuel on the Fire

11am - 12pm MDT

Presenters: Brent Nelson, PhD & Gary Dorris, PhD

With rising gas prices, stranded asset risks for thermals, and growing renewable penetrations, renewables and storage were already the most economic new resources in most markets even before the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act improved their economic outlook. While Ascend already forecasted aggressive renewable buildouts, the extension of the Investment Tax Credit to standalone storage significantly improves the merchant viability in storage in marginal markets. This webinar will cover key developments since Ascend's last forecasts and estimated changes for upcoming releases.

July 20, 2023 | New Frontiers in Contracting Renewables & Storage

11am - 12pm MT

Speakers: Scott N. Wrigglesworth, VP Operations & Strategy & Dr. Gary Dorris, CEO & President

While the energy transition has ushered in a wave of new opportunities, the focus on long-term PPAs has produced paltry returns relative to other options. These innovations have yielded a return on invested capital in half the time of a traditional PPA. This webinar introduces new approaches beyond PPAs to increase project value for renewables and storage:

• Creating financeable tolls and hedge off-take structures for wind & solar plus storage
• Assessing the relative risk vs returns of merchant assets, OTC block trades, and PPAs across ISOs
• Determining Carbon-Free Energy (CFE) with the adoption of hourly RECs and value implications
• Avoiding low revenue tail risk for merchant operations with risk transfer insurance
• Measuring portfolio benefits of diversification of project off-take structures

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July 13, 2022 | Market Forecasting in an Era of Energy Transition: Not Your Boss's Forecast

11am - 12pm MT

Presenters: Brent Nelson, PhD & Gary Dorris, PhD

Electricity price dynamics are fundamentally changing with increasing renewable penetrations, and the days are over of average prices having great sway. Volatility is growing, negative prices are becoming increasingly frequent, geospatial patterns of supply and power prices are radically changing, and ancillary markets are transforming. Understanding the structural drivers of change and their links to market conditions is critical to making informed decisions. This presentation will cover what energy investors and developers need to understand about power markets as the energy transition progresses.

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As interconnection queues surge with clean energy projects, the supply of clean energy projects will begin to exceed demand and put downward price pressure on PPA offtakes and early-stage M&A transactions. At the same time, supply chain normalization and resumed cost declines for material components will drive PPA prices to re-normalize after recent upticks. A need is also arising for increased sophistication in clean energy procurement as offtakers transition from annual offsets to 24/7 clean energy and emissions matching.

If you are a Corporate, Community Choice Aggregator, Utility, Investor, or Asset-Owner looking to understand the market outlook for clean energy procurement and M&A transactions, register for this webinar!

Speakers: Gary Dorris, PhD, Brent Nelson, PhD, Anthony Boukarim

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June 22, 2022 | Off-take Strategies for Managing Renewables & Storage Portfolio Risk

11am - 12pm MT

Presenters: Carlos Blanco, PhD & Scott Wrigglesworth

While the energy transition has ushered in a wave of new opportunities, the focus of attention on long-term PPA’s has been a relative race to the bottom, leaving significant upside for over-the-counter (OTC) hedges and tolls. This webinar will explore the relative risk and return of alternative contract mechanisms and how to shape a portfolio that leverages high market conditions for increased return on capital. Portfolio and Risk Management for the renewable and storage portfolio has significantly greater risk than thermal generation, creating a greater need to understand the principal components of risk and physical financial mechanisms to mitigate these risks.  In this webinar, Ascend’s portfolio risk management experts will discuss how to assemble an OTC contract structure and compare the relative risk and return through case studies addressing:

Creating financeable tolls & hedge off-take structures for wind & solar plus storage

Storage and TB4 trade values and merchant exposure

Incorporating Load and pursuit of 24 x7 carbon free

- 24x7 green wind + solar + storage

- 24x7 Clean Energy Score

- 12x24 Visualizations for Green Energy Profile ‘Christmas Tree’ Diagrams

- Financial and 24x7 Score Efficient Frontier Example

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March 1, 2023| PJM & MISO Market Forecast Update: A Series of Fortunate Events

Speakers: Gary Dorris, PhD & Brent Nelson, PhD

Elevated gas prices, passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, and continued clean energy demand from policy and ESG goals have strengthened the outlook for clean energy and clean capacity resources in PJM and MISO. Rapid renewable growth will put severe economic pressure on coal in the region, while the standalone storage ITC will increasingly make storage the clear new capacity resource to meet load growth.This webinar will discuss Ascend's latest market outlooks for PJM andMISO as this transition progresses.

Time: 11am - 12pm MT

Speakers: Dr. Brent Nelson & Dr. Gary Dorris

March 2nd, 2022 | PJM/MISO Market Forecast Preview: The Need for a Security Blanket

PJM and MISO both currently have low renewable penetrations, but interconnection queues indicate that change is coming with a surge of incoming renewables that will place severe economic pressure on inflexible thermal generation, particularly coal. Accelerating demand for clean energy will support PPA offtake contracts and drive increased REC prices for renewable generation. However, offtake contracts will be needed for standalone storage in both markets until the 2030s as renewable resources supplant thermal generation, driving price volatility and capacity prices upward. This webinar will discuss Ascend's market outlooks for PJM and MISO as this transition progresses.

Time: 11.00am - 12:15pm MT

Speakers: David Millar & Anthony Boukarim

February 17th, 2022 | Renewable and Storage Procurement in CA: Year in Review and Looking Ahead

2021 was a big year for renewable and storage procurement in California. Community Choice Aggregators continued to take the lead in seeking power purchase agreements for renewable energy and battery storage in CAISO, driven by internal goals for annual and 24-7 clean energy as well as state mandates following the Mid-Term Reliability (MTR) Order. In this webinar, Ascend's clean energy procurement experts will discuss their take aways from 2021 including:

• What is the effect of inflation and supply chain bottlenecks on PPA prices?
• What goes into an offer valuation (price vs value and qualitative assessment)?
• What kinds of projects (and where) are winning in the market?
• How is long-duration storage faring as a new product?
• How will California utilities fulfill the 'baseload' clean energy requirements of the MTR?
• Where is the market going in 2022 and beyond?

With low prices, high wind penetration, and an incoming surge of solar, SPP is well-situated to support offtake demand for clean energy. As load grows with electrification, data centers, and green hydrogen production the need for new capacity will become more acute, with a rapidly rising value for capacity through the end of the decade. In this webinar, we will discuss Ascend Analytics’ outlook on the SPP power market, identifying key dynamics and opportunities for renewables and storage.

11:00AM - 12:00PM MT

Speakers: Dr. Brent Nelson & Dr. Gary Dorris

Energy markets are rapidly changing. Renewables and storage deployment across the US are disrupting traditional approaches to fundamental price forecasting, driving the need for new approaches and fresh insights.

The first session, Marketing forecasting in an era of energy transition: critical issues and structural drivers, will cover the building blocks and philosophy of Ascend's forecasting approach.

The presenters will discuss how Ascend power market forecasts account for emerging market dynamics associated with renewable penetration, while remaining firmly grounded in long-run economic equilibrium.This approach ensures that the models are calibrated to historical market conditions while not being overly anchored to historical, present, or near-future price behavior.

In the second session of the Ascend Market ForecastWebinar Series, the presenters will discuss Ascend's current market outlooks, providing analytical insights into the key drivers for spot prices, volatility, ancillary and capacity prices for major ISOs.

Ascend market intelligence and forecasts are used by leading utilities, renewable project and battery storage developers, investors and financiers to support finance decisions for renewables and battery storage projects, long term resource plans under uncertainty and portfolio management decisions. Ascend’s Market Forecasts have been used to support over $2.2billion of renewable and storage project financings.

Join us as we present our forecast methodology and key insights for energy, capacity and ancillary service markets in major ISOs.

July 27, 2022 | Reliability Planning for a Low Carbon Future

11am - 12pm MT

Presenters: Brandon Mauch, PhD, David Millar & Ben Fitch-Fleischmann, PhD

As the US charts a path towards a carbon-free future and utilities are pushed to meet aggressive clean energy goals, meeting this challenge requires building large amounts of wind, solar and energy storage. This large growth in highly variable weather-driven power supply raises the stakes for rigorous analysis of resource adequacy to ensure a reliable power system. In this webinar, Ascend's resource planning experts will discuss:

• Risks of load shortfalls in today’s systems
• Model requirements for best practices in resource adequacy analysis
• Resource adequacy metrics and their use in planning
• ELCC analysis of weather-driven and energy limited resources

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BatterySIMM launches new capabilities that enable customers to shorten the cycle time between optimizing asset configurations and generating revenue forecasts that leading banks trust.

New Feature Highlights:

• Model up to 10 battery system configurations in the same study
• Auto-populate market participation strategies with one click to produce Ascend-trusted valuations
• Leverage enhanced data validation to fast-track delivery and improve efficiency

Register for this webinar to learn how to build battery revenue forecasts effortlessly with BatterySIMM.

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