Market Intelligence: Wholesale Markets

Ascend’s models provide 20+ year forecasts for day-ahead and real-time (5 min) power prices for every node, hub, and market in the US and Western Europe for ancillary services prices, capacity prices, and REC prices as well as nodal basis forecasts for every major market in the United States and Europe. Understand expected hub and nodal price behavior at your project’s interconnection and/or settlement point with full granularity, from the project’s commercial operations date until its retirement.

Market Intelligence: Retail Rates

Having facilitated over 2,000 MW of distributed project development and transactions nationwide, Ascend’s Retail Rates offering delivers in-depth views of markets, policy, and forecasts to support behind-the-meter activities. Some key areas include community solar and storage, behind-the-meter projects and portfolio valuations, post-PPA revenue assessments, virtual power plants (VPPs), and aggregated distributed assets (including FERC 2222).  

The foundation of the retail forecasts utilize the price forecasts produced by the Market Intelligence team for the next 20+ years. Ascend’s transparent approach allows for detailed identification of retail rate components (supply, transmission, distribution, etc.) and forecast drivers linked to underlying wholesale market drivers, risk factors, and policy.

Distributed Power Market Forecast

Ascend’s Supply Rate Forecasts break down the wholesale components of the supply stack leveraging historical and forecasted hourly energy prices, capacity prices, and RECs/RPS.  

This detailed approach provides unique insight into how the underlying supply rate components evolve and impact rates over time, allowing for better identification of market drivers, risk factors, and potential likelihood of rate reform, among other insights.

Community solar forecasts are specific by state, including consideration of specific program rules forecasted bill credits.

Geospatial Mapping of Locational Value Metrics

Every location and project configuration pairing is unique, providing pricing dynamics and revenue projections across the United States. Ascend forecasts rates on a local level by utility and rate class down the specific rate components (supply, distribution, transmission).

Geospatial mapping allows users to view forecasts geospatially together with many other key metrics such as historical rates, distribution hosting capacity, interconnection queue, parcel data, substation and power plant locations, and transmission as well as wholesale information that includes pricing dynamics and project revenue potential across 50,000+ nodes in the US.

All the retail rate forecasts and reports as well as historical rates are kept up to date on the Market Intelligence Hub allowing users to access to up to date information.

Distributed Valuations: Renewables & Storage

Similar to the approach for wholesale projects, for distributed storage and hybrid projects, users can select operating strategies from the naïve to perfect foresight inclusive of physical asset attributes, including: round-trip efficiencies, charging/discharging constraints, cycling limits, and expected degradation & augmentation schedules. Dispatch simulations adhere to the specific state and/or program rules while also respecting the physical limitations of each project.  

NY Value of Distributed Energy Resources (VDER)

PowerVAL also includes forecasts and modeling for projects in New York’s VDER program. Forecasts are anchored on the Market Intelligence outlook for NYISO with a view of market dynamics and components over the next 25 years.  

Access VDER forecasts include pricing dynamics and project revenue, informed by key metrics such as historical retail rates, historical wholesale prices, and forecast wholesale prices. Geospatial mapping includes distribution hosting capacity, interconnection queues, land parcel data, substation & power plant locations, and transmission.  

MI Retail’s dispatch optimization software, specifically designed for VDER, allows modeling of standalone battery projects as well as solar and storage hybrid projects. Customize project configuration, bidding strategy & foresight, VDER values (energy capacity, DRV, and LSRV), retail energy charging costs, and demand costs. Users can model project margins, revenues by VDER stack component, and charging costs.

Your Trusted Market Intelligence Source

The energy transition is driven by market dynamics that are changing faster than ever before. A reliable forecast is the cornerstone of success for those who make procurement decisions and whose dollars are at risk. AscendMI™ supports over $20 billion in renewable and storage project financings and guides major utilities and financiers across the country for resource planning and valuation.

Please indicate which energy market you are interested in, and we are happy to send you an Ascend Analytics Marketing Intelligence Report snapshot.