Ascend Market Intelligence

Renewables and storage deployment across the US are rapidly changing energy markets, disrupting historical price patterns and price formation mechanisms, and undermining traditional approaches to fundamental price forecasting.

This disruption has created a need for new modeling approaches and fresh insights. Ascend Market Intelligence provides expert analysis and fundamental price forecasts that are built for the emerging and future market dynamics, supporting modern resource planning and procurement decision-making in an era of energy transition.

Key differentiators include:

  • Forecasts of zonal and nodal prices accounting for the key geospatial driving forces that determine basis price evolution.
  • Accounting for renewable curtailment as an increasingly important (and growing) factor in price formation.
  • Hourly and sub-hourly price volatility reflective of real-life market conditions and accounting for the impact of increasing renewables and storage resources on price dynamics.
  • Use of long-run economic equilibrium as a fundamental anchor, ensuring that forecasts are consistent with a defendable economic outlook.
  • Grounded in expectations of future policy, rather than reflecting only currently enacted policies.
  • Modeled capacity expansion into the future, accounting for regional cost of supply, transmission limits and congestion, and weather variability on supply, while also incorporating forecasts of the impact of corporate offtake demand and stakeholder pressure.

What is Ascend Market Intelligence?

Ascend Market Intelligence is a subscription service designed to help utilities, project developers, and the finance community make prudent, risk-based decisions for the energy markets of today and into a more renewable heavy future. Any decision maker can benefit from Ascend's unique view of the future path of power markets.

Ascend Market Intelligence
is also specifically designed to seamlessly integrate with Ascend's software platforms PowerSIMM and BatterySIMM, making it a perfect choice for developers to value their project and utilities to develop modern integrated resource plans and request for proposal/offer valuations.

Subscribers receive Market Reports updated 2x per year, covering the latest policy and regulatory trends, market performance, and Ascend's 20+ year forecasts of day-ahead and real-time energy prices for major trading hubs, ancillary services prices, and capacity prices. In addition, customers can designate three nodes for Locational Marginal Price (LMP) forecasts as part of their subscription. Additional nodes can be purchased for an additional fee.

Ascend's forecasts and Market Intelligence services over the following markets:

  • CAISO
  • ERCOT
  • SPP
  • PJM
  • NYISO
  • ISO-NE
  • MISO
  • Pacfic NorthWest / Mid C
  • SouthWest / Palo Verde

Trusted Advisory

The mark of a forecast is the trust placed in it by those who make procurement decisions and whose dollars are at risk. Ascend's Market Intelligence reports have been used to support over $3.2 billion of renewable and storage project financings and are used by major utilities and financiers across the US for resource planning and valuation. Ask us about our references.

Ascend's Approach to Fundamental Forecasting

Given the unprecedented shift to renewables and storage, future energy markets will be unlike anything we have seen in the past. Therefore, Ascend's forecasts of future market conditions are based on a unique combination of market forward data and long-run fundamental modeling that accounts for the emerging market dynamics of future supply mixes rather than legacy market dynamics of thermal baseload generation. The Ascend framework is shown below:

Ascend forecasts power price shapes, ancillary service prices, capacity prices, and sub-hourly price dynamics based on the changing supply and demand dynamics. These forecasts are internally consistent, reflective of opportunity costs, and anchored to long-run economic equilibrium, ensuring a coherent and realistic view of energy market dynamics that is needed for informed decision making.

Ascend begins with macro level drivers that affect future energy supply and demand conditions, including climate and renewable policy, economic growth, electrification, technology costs, and stakeholder demand. Ascend provides its own base case forecast but can also develop custom forecasts for clients based on alternative assumptions.

Subscribers receive simulated hourly and sub-hourly spot prices generated using Ascend's proprietary weather-driven simulation engine.

Ascend forecasts power price shapes, ancillary service prices, capacity prices, and sub-hourly price dynamics based on the changing supply and demand dynamics. These forecasts are internally consistent, reflective of opportunity costs, and anchored to long-run economic equilibrium, ensuring a coherent and realistic view of energy market dynamics that is needed for informed decision making.

Contact for more information on subscribing
to support your resource decision making today!

Why choose Ascend Market Intelligence?

Decisions on long-lived physical assets is risky. Utilities, developers, and financiers need deep insight to manage risk while also getting deals done. Ascend offers unique value including;

  • A fresh perspective of where energy markets are headed, not just where they have been, accounting for the market impacts of increasing renewable penetrations and deployment of storage.
  • Explicit modeling and accounting for price volatility at the hourly and sub-hourly levels
  • Weather driven simulation of power prices that capture the critical correlations between prices, volatility, load, and renewable generation
  • Insight into geospatial dynamics and evolving basis and curtailment risk driven by renewables.
  • The benefits of leveraging up-to-date forward market data and long-run fundamentals
  • Seamless integration into the
    PowerSIMM and BatterySIMM platforms.