As CAISO continues its journey toward 100% carbon-free power, market dynamics will evolve as the power system faces a variety of operational risks, including growing net load ramps, increasing solar curtailment, and geospatial price dynamics that are continuing to solidify. This report discusses the key forces driving change to the market dynamics in CAISO and explains the implications for valuation, renewables, and storage projects.

ERCOT is undergoing a rapid energy transition, with an enormous surge in renewable generation and storage. This transformation of the power supply will bring a variety of changes to the market dynamics in ERCOT, with changing critical system conditions, price volatility, and geospatial patterns. Incoming renewables drive a growing need for flexibility, while load growth also drives a growing need for capacity overall. This report discusses Ascend's outlook on the ERCOT power market as this transition plays out.

New England has low renewable penetrations at present, but aggressive state clean energy policies will drive rapid change to the supply mix. As renewable resources supplant thermal generation, price volatility will rise and the need for capacity resources will grow as thermal generation retires and capacity markets tighten. This report discusses Ascend's market outlook for ISO-NE as this transition gets underway.

SPP already has one of the highest renewable penetrations in the country, and continued renewable additions will push it even higher as solar buildout accelerates. With an interconnection queue loaded with renewable capacity, thermal generation will continue to come under severe economic pressure and price volatility will continue to grow. This report discusses Ascend's market outlook on SPP as it undergoes this supply transformation.

Elevated gas prices, passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, and continued clean energy demand from policy and ESG goals have strengthened the outlook for clean energy and clean capacity resources in MISO. Rapid renewable growth will put severe economic pressure on coal in the region, while the standalone storage ITC will increasingly make storage the clear new capacity resource to meet load growth. However, while the need for new capacity will be large, much of the value for new capacity is expected to be realized through offtake contracts rather than the capacity market. This report discusses Ascend's latest market outlooks for MISO as this transition progresses.

PJM has low renewable penetration, but interconnection queues indicate that change is coming, with a surge of incoming renewables that will place severe economic pressure on inflexible thermal generation, particularly coal. Tightening clean energy policies coupled with accelerating demand for clean energy among offtakers will be a critical driving force for the energy transition in PJM. However, economic viability for storage will take time to grow as renewable resources supplant thermal generation, driving price volatility and capacity prices upward. This report discusses Ascend’s market outlook for PJM as this transition progresses.

New York has low renewable penetration at present, but aggressive state clean energy policies will drive rapid change to the supply mix. As renewable resources supplant thermal generation, price volatility will rise and the need for capacity resources will grow as thermal generation retires and capacity markets tighten. At the same time, marginal ELCC accreditation has diminished the economic viability of storage despite the addition of an investment tax credit under the IRA. This report describes Ascend’s market outlooks for NYISO as its transition is underway.