Ascend Publishes CAISO Market Forecast 5.1, Recommending How to Navigate California's Clean Energy Planning Tensions

May 16, 2024



BOULDER, Colorado, May 16, 2024: Ascend Analytics announces the release of its CAISO Market Forecast and Report 5.1. This new report offers developers, utilities, and financiers an in-depth analysis of challenges, opportunities, and financial outlook in CAISO as California moves through its energy transition.  

Recent mild market conditions mask larger challenges ahead. CAISO faces a fundamental shift in supply, and as the state continues to ramp up its renewable deployment ambitions, thermal generation faces political, economic, and social pressure to retire. New resources also struggle to come online to meet ever-tightening clean energy policy mandates. On the demand side, increasingly volatile weather and rising rates of electrification drive up future load expectations. With a net-zero mandate by 2045, these dynamics point to more volatile future market conditions that show no sign of slowing down.  

Ascend’s CAISO Market Forecast 5.1 [link to product page when live] provides industry-leading market intelligence and forecasting confidence for decision making in California.  

Topics Include:

Why CAISO’s planning tensions will influence developer timelines, amid expectations for significant load growth, increased electrification, extreme weather, clogged interconnection queues, and social pressure against nuclear development.  

  • What California policy targets, including meeting 100% clean energy resources by 2045, will require of flexible generation resources and how renewable penetration impacts the supply curve.  
  • How increased solar penetration will alter mid-day and afternoon implied market heat rates and impact the duck curve in the long run.  
  • Where opportunities will arise for energy arbitrage and a regional breakdown of price dynamics.  

About Ascend Analytics  

AscendMI™ (Ascend Market Intelligence) delivers proprietary power market forecasts that have been trusted in hundreds of projects and resource planning activities, supporting over $25 billion in project financing assessments. Contact us to learn more.  

For more information about the CAISO market dynamics, watch Ascend CAISO’s 5.1 Webinar, The Calm Before the Storm, here.  

Ascend Store | CAISO 5.1 Webinar Teaser | The Calm Before the Storm (

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About Ascend Analytics

Ascend Analytics, an innovative leader at the forefront of the energy transition, offers advanced software and consulting services that capture the evolving and real-time dynamics of energy markets. The company provides its customers with optimized and comprehensive decision analysis that covers everything from long-term planning to real-time operations in the electric power supply industry.