Market Intelligence and Forecasts that Drive Optimal Decisions
Power markets are being reshaped by rapidly shifting supply and demand. Ascend delivers the strategic insights and bankable forecasts decision makers need to plan, invest, and act.
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300+ GW
Project Valuation Assessments Underpinned
$50+ Billion
in Project Financing Assessments
50,000+
U.S. Nodes Modeled for Pricing Dynamics & Project Revenue
Pillars of a Modern Forecasting Framework
When investments span 30+ years, the right energy market forecast is critical. Ascend’s Enhanced Opportunity Cost Forecasting Framework is built for a grid reshaped by renewables, storage, and data center-driven load growth. The EOCFF is the only methodology that combines near-term nodal precision with long-run market equilibrium, providing developers, financiers, corporates, utilities, and IPPs with nodal, sub-hourly views of power, ancillary, capacity, and REC prices across all US power markets.
Macro Considerations
- Anticipated policy rather than status quo
- Cost/financial
- Rapid load growth
Capacity Expansion
- Supply stack by unit, load for each load type
- Transmission constraints at hyper-local level
- Long term: economics, policy, demand
Price Formation
- Correlated weather, load, renewables & prices
- Impact of large responsive & curtailable loads
- Opportunity cost price-setting behavior
Key Outputs
- Gas & power forwards, price shapes
- DA/RT volatility, RT prices, ancillary services, capacity market evolution
- Hourly generation reporting & asset performance
Investment-Grade Energy Market Intelligence
In today's rapidly evolving energy markets, choosing the right forecast has never been more critical. Ascend Market Intelligence gives developers, IPPs, and financial institutions the strategic insights and analytical depth needed to understand market dynamics, assess risk, and act with confidence.
Market Intelligence and Forecasts That Deliver
Ascend produces investment-grade forecasts that move projects from development to financing to operation with confidence by leveraging a proprietary approach that combines the best aspects of multiple models to singularly capture near-term and long-term dynamics.
Clearest Market Picture
Integrates production cost and long-run equilibrium modeling to capture price dynamics that legacy frameworks cannot replicate
Clearest Market Picture
Integrates production cost and long-run equilibrium modeling to capture price dynamics that legacy frameworks cannot replicate
Weather-Driven Models
More accurately models typical weather and captures critical correlations between prices, volatility, load, and renewable generation
Weather-Driven Models
More accurately models typical weather and captures critical correlations between prices, volatility, load, and renewable generation
Load & Transmission Clarity
Accounts for how large, responsive loads reshape nodal prices, and how transmission constraints create hyper-local price divergences
Load & Transmission Clarity
Accounts for how large, responsive loads reshape nodal prices, and how transmission constraints create hyper-local price divergences
Nodal-Level Clarity
Captures pricing, siting, and development potential at every U.S. node, hub, and market, including the local impact of large new loads or generation
Nodal-Level Clarity
Captures pricing, siting, and development potential at every U.S. node, hub, and market, including the local impact of large new loads or generation
Granular Geospatial Analysis
Accounts for the impacts of renewable resource potential, cost of land, and geographic barriers
Granular Geospatial Analysis
Accounts for the impacts of renewable resource potential, cost of land, and geographic barriers
Day-Ahead and Real-Time Power Prices
Every U.S. node, hub, and market
Day-Ahead and Real-Time Power Prices
Every U.S. node, hub, and market
Wholesale Market Forecasts
30+ year horizon, hourly DA prices, sub-hourly RT prices, hourly generation reporting and asset performance, capacity prices, RECs, capture rates, and hourly marginal emissions
Wholesale Market Forecasts
30+ year horizon, hourly DA prices, sub-hourly RT prices, hourly generation reporting and asset performance, capacity prices, RECs, capture rates, and hourly marginal emissions
Retail Rate Forecasts
Distributed resources, including community solar and storage, behind-the-meter projects, Virtual Power Plants, and more
Retail Rate Forecasts
Distributed resources, including community solar and storage, behind-the-meter projects, Virtual Power Plants, and more
Bankability
Ascend’s work underpins more than 300 GW and $50 billion of project valuation assessments
Reputation
Ascend’s market intelligence and forecasts are widely used by developers, financiers, independent power producers, and banking institutions, and have become the market standard for price benchmarking and US power market insights
Expertise
Services in project finance support typically include independent project assessments, reliance letters, and forecast input ‘defense’ to credit committees and other stakeholders
Comprehensive
Forecasts account for and incorporate multiple layers of information, including cost of land, renewable resource potential, IRA energy communities, transmission infrastructure, population density, interconnection queue status, and other criteria
Flexibility
Recommendations can range from simple rankings of high value nodes to investment maps used to guide project siting
Market Intelligence and Forecasting: The Ascend Advantage
Learn MoreWho Ascend Analytics Helps
Across every stage of the energy value chain, Ascend’s market intelligence and forecasts help transform uncertainty into advantage.
Nodal price outlooks, IRA eligibility determination, and interconnection queue data for site screening; offtake structuring, and lender-ready forecasts
Nodal price outlooks, IRA eligibility determination, and interconnection queue data for site screening; offtake structuring, and lender-ready forecasts
30+ year nodal wholesale and retail outlooks for portfolio strategy, basis risk management, and defensible planning assumptions
30+ year nodal wholesale and retail outlooks for portfolio strategy, basis risk management, and defensible planning assumptions
IRP scenario support, RFP design and scoring, and regulator-ready forecast documentation
IRP scenario support, RFP design and scoring, and regulator-ready forecast documentation
PPA structuring, facility siting tied to nodal price and emissions outlooks, portfolio exposure modeling
PPA structuring, facility siting tied to nodal price and emissions outlooks, portfolio exposure modeling
Independent forecast validation, correlated scenario modeling for investment committee materials, post-close monitoring
Independent forecast validation, correlated scenario modeling for investment committee materials, post-close monitoring
Key Resources
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Breakable: Can Capacity Markets Survive an Era of Sustained, High Capacity Prices?
This publication is the second in a series from Ascend Analytics that considers the implications of rapid load growth on US capacity markets, high capacity prices as the new normal, the risks that new realities create for business-as-usual strategies, and the opportunities that this paradigm shift enables for well-planned new entry resources.