Expertise That Closes Deals & Protects Capital
Ascend plays a critical role in the effective stewardship of client capital. By capturing and modeling key drivers of policy, supply, and demand, market forecasts provide critical guidance in benchmarking risk-adjusted returns.
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300+ GW
Project Valuation Assessments Underpinned
100+
Project Finance and M&A Transactions Supported
$50+ Billion
In Project Financing Assessments
Trusted & Credible: Key Ascend Differentiators
Model-driven fundamental forecasts underpin nearly every aspect of energy planning processes and drive critical decisions related to asset valuation, portfolio management, investment, and long-term planning. Ascend Analytics supports project investment for both equity and debt with bankable forecasts that provide the analytical and financial rigor that hedge funds, private equity firms, investment banks, and asset managers rely upon.
Long-Run Equilibrium
- Enforces market discipline
- Rational new unit entry
- Avoids over-optimistic projections
Weather-Driven Price Models
- Correlated load, generation, price
- Sub-hourly real-time capture
- Real-world volatility conditions
Nodal-Level Specificity
- Hub, zone, and nodal resolution
- Congestion and basis outlooks
- 50,000+ US nodes modeled
Deal Lifecycle Support
- IC-ready narratives & exhibits
- Reliance letters and sensitivities
- Post-close monitoring available
Investment-Grade Analytics Across the Deal Lifecycle
From initial site screening through investment committee to post-close monitoring, Ascend delivers the insights, forecasts, valuations, and advisory support for successful equity, construction, term, tax, and mark-to-market capital allocation processes.
Independent Project Assessments
Revenue forecasts for solar, storage, wind, hybrid, and thermal assets across all US ISOs, benchmarked to actual operational results from Ascend’s SmartBidder
Independent Project Assessments
Revenue forecasts for solar, storage, wind, hybrid, and thermal assets across all US ISOs, benchmarked to actual operational results from Ascend’s SmartBidder
Reliance Letters and Investment Committee Support
Lender-grade narratives, exhibits, and sensitivities expertly prepared for credit committee review
Reliance Letters and Investment Committee Support
Lender-grade narratives, exhibits, and sensitivities expertly prepared for credit committee review
Forecast Defense
Transparent assumptions and methodologies defended by a deep bench of market experts
Forecast Defense
Transparent assumptions and methodologies defended by a deep bench of market experts
Valuation Modeling
Nodal-specific project values integrate supply, demand, transmission, policy constraints, and federal tax eligibility into ISO-specific participation rules
Valuation Modeling
Nodal-specific project values integrate supply, demand, transmission, policy constraints, and federal tax eligibility into ISO-specific participation rules
Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis
Custom price curve scenarios, capacity market outcomes, policy shifts, and weather impacts, enabling confident underwriting under uncertainty
Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis
Custom price curve scenarios, capacity market outcomes, policy shifts, and weather impacts, enabling confident underwriting under uncertainty
Volatility and Basis Modeling
Curtailment risk, congestion exposure, and capture rate distributions for renewables and storage
Volatility and Basis Modeling
Curtailment risk, congestion exposure, and capture rate distributions for renewables and storage
Portfolio Risk Management
Post-close mark-to-market monitoring against realized performance; ongoing re-evaluation as market conditions evolve
Portfolio Risk Management
Post-close mark-to-market monitoring against realized performance; ongoing re-evaluation as market conditions evolve
Bankability
Ascend's work has underwritten billions in capital deployment, with forecasts trusted by investment banks, private equity, infrastructure funds, and tax equity partners
Accuracy
Forecasts validated against actual operating results from SmartBidder provide a real-world basis for revenue assumptions
Methodology
Ascend's enhanced opportunity cost framework enforces long-run market equilibrium and simulates weather as the primary driver of demand, generation, and price, capturing dynamics that legacy models do not include
Trusted
Support spans valuation, underwriting, IC materials, execution sensitivities, and post-close monitoring, reducing dependence on multiple vendors and accelerating deal timelines
Precision
High-resolution nodal price forecasts and geospatial data that captures supply stack, load growth, policy, transmission, and congestion at a granular level
Energy Project Finance & Investment: The Ascend Advantage
Learn MoreWho Ascend Analytics Helps
For energy project and investment stakeholders, Ascend provides buy-side and sell-side diligence for all resource types, portfolio risk analyses, investment committee-ready materials, and direct access to senior market advisors.
Bankable revenue forecasts for offtake structuring and project financing
Bankable revenue forecasts for offtake structuring and project financing
Nodal valuation for portfolio financing, basis risk quantification, and long-run planning assumptions across merchant and contracted assets
Nodal valuation for portfolio financing, basis risk quantification, and long-run planning assumptions across merchant and contracted assets
Offtake analytics for data center and behind-the-meter asset dispatch-to-load, VPPA scenarios, and nodal price outlooks
Offtake analytics for data center and behind-the-meter asset dispatch-to-load, VPPA scenarios, and nodal price outlooks
Independent forecast validation and lender-grade reports for Investment Committee underwriting and post-close performance monitoring
Independent forecast validation and lender-grade reports for Investment Committee underwriting and post-close performance monitoring
Key Resources
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Breakable: Can Capacity Markets Survive an Era of Sustained, High Capacity Prices?
This publication is the second in a series from Ascend Analytics that considers the implications of rapid load growth on US capacity markets, high capacity prices as the new normal, the risks that new realities create for business-as-usual strategies, and the opportunities that this paradigm shift enables for well-planned new entry resources.
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Enabling BESS Portfolio Growth for New Market Entrants with AEX Asset Sales
Golden State Renewable Energy (“GSR-E”), a California-based energy storage project developer, expanded its development capabilities to originate and develop Distributed Generation Resource (“DGR”) standalone battery energy storage system (“BESS”) projects in Texas.
