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Ascend Analytics says more than 80% of new large loads seeking interconnection will not have matching generation online by 2030, even as data centers and industrial demand continue to surge.

Dive Brief

• Peak demand in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas territory could reach 120 GW by 2030 – incredible growth of more than 30% above the new, unofficial all-time peak reached on July 22, but notably lower than ERCOT’s own forecasts, according to a market report from Ascend Analytics that was provided to Utility Dive.
• The firm cites gas turbine shortages, multi-year development timelines and interconnection bottlenecks as limiting factors preventing enough new generation from coming online to serve proposed large loads.
• Ascend says ERCOT’s energy-only market no longer provides enough revenue certainty to finance the dispatchable generation needed to meet future demand, while persistent gaps between forward markets and actual outcomes weaken the market signals used to guide investment decisions.

Dive Insight

ERCOT’s large-load queue has grown by more than 200 GW since 2024, driven largely by data centers, manufacturing, cryptocurrency and industrial oil and gas development, but uncertainty remains over how much load can be safely interconnected.

The grid operator said in April that the total 2030 load reported by transmission service providers, based on contracts and officer letters, was 208 GW. ERCOT’s adjusted load forecast put it at 138 GW.

Ascend’s estimate of 120 GW assumes delays and a 55.4% success rate for proposed loads. The firm says delays in energization and large-load attrition are making it increasingly difficult to forecast how much demand will actually materialize on ERCOT’s grid.

“Even though that appetite is enormous, if it can’t get met, it’s not coming online,” Brent Nelson, senior managing director of market intelligence at Ascend, told Utility Dive in an interview.

“The ability of the grid to add new generation is much, much smaller than the demand of queued large-load facilities,” Robert LaFaso, Ascend’s director of market intelligence, told Utility Dive.

Both executives identified generation availability as the primary constraint.

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Ascend Analytics is the leading provider of market intelligence and analytics solutions for the power industry.

The company’s offerings enable decision makers in power supply, procurement, and investment markets to plan, operate, monetize, and manage risk across any energy asset portfolio. From real-time to 30-year horizons, their forecasts and insights are at the foundation of over $50 billion in project financing assessments.

Ascend provides energy market stakeholders with the clarity and confidence to successfully navigate the rapidly shifting energy landscape.