The Colorado Energy Office (CEO), a non-regulatory department within the Governor’s Office, sought assistance to evaluate the potential to reliably accelerate the decarbonization of its electric sector. Following a competitive Request for Proposal (RFP) process, CEO commissioned Ascend Analytics to model different pathways to decarbonization and analyze how those pathways might impact system reliability, costs, and employment. The project culminated in a report to assist the state with policy making to continue decarbonization efforts.
In 2019, Colorado set economy-wide goals of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 50% by 2030 and 90% by 2050 from a 2005 baseline. In 2021, the state released the GHG Pollution Reduction Roadmap updating the GHG goals to achieve a 75% reduction by 2040 and reaching net zero by 2050. CEO retained Ascend to evaluate how Colorado could achieve zero carbon or near zero emissions in the state’s electric sector by 2040.
In collaboration with CEO, Ascend leveraged its PowerSIMM™ Platform to model six scenarios that showed potential paths towards decarbonizing Colorado's electric sector by 2040. The analysis relied on resource technologies currently available or projected to be market-ready by 2040. PowerSIMM’s capacity expansion module, Automated Resource Selection (ARS), provided the least-cost resource mix for each scenario in replacing fossil fuel resources with clean energy. Ascend’s high-resolution analytical approach included modeling resource dispatch across the state to serve load on an hourly basis, with transmission limits and market interactions. In addition, Ascend’s methodology used renewable generation sources based on historical data rather than average profiles that repeat each year.
To provide a cost comparison, Ascend calculated net present value of capital costs, fuel costs, and imported energy for each scenario. PowerSIMM provided reliability analysis to ensure all scenarios met the North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s (NERC) standard for meeting load with no less than 1 day of shortfall over ten years. Across all scenarios, Ascend modeled electric load growth based on economic and population growth, as well as by shifts to electric vehicles, building electrification, and electrification of oil and gas end uses.
By integrating physical conditions with financial outcomes, Ascend’s comprehensive, weather-correlated approach to modeling demonstrated Colorado can move to a reliable, affordable, and clean electrical grid by 2040. Ascend modeled the following scenarios:
Ascend analysis showed across all scenarios, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions drop to near zero in the early 2030s as Colorado retires all coal and the share of gas generation drops to zero or near-zero levels, as shown in Figure 1. The baseline, least-cost, 'Economic Deployment' scenario, which assumes implementation of the state’s existing clean energy planning framework and other existing state and federal energy policies, reduces emissions by 97.7% from in-state generation by 2040 while also achieving near zero emissions in nitrous oxide (NOx) and sulfur oxide (SOx).
Though all seven scenarios provided pathways to the deep decarbonization of Colorado's electric power sector by 2040, Ascend analysis revealed significant cost differences, shown in Figure 2, driven largely by resource mix. The six scenarios that provided pathways to zero in-state emissions produced costs that ranged from 20-42% more expensive than the Economic Deployment scenario. The results demonstrated the high cost of decarbonizing the last bit of emissions indicating that Colorado may have more cost-effective opportunities for GHG reductions outside the power sector. The Economic Deployment reached a 97.7% reduction in GHG emissions from in-state generation below 2005 levels by 2040 with existing policies.
Ascend worked closely with CEO in an iterative process that took into account feedback from key state stakeholders, including large utilities, environmental advocacy groups, municipal utilities, and others. The study will inform and validate subsequent policy discussions and decisions, both within the Governor's Office and the state legislature.
The PowerSIMM™ energy analytics platform offers portfolio management, resource planning, and valuation capabilities leveraging Ascend’s high-resolution analytic approach and Market Intelligence. Contact us to learn more.
The Colorado Energy Office (CEO), a non-regulatory department within the Governor’s Office, sought assistance to evaluate the potential to reliably accelerate the decarbonization of its electric sector. Following a competitive Request for Proposal (RFP) process, CEO commissioned Ascend Analytics to model different pathways to decarbonization and analyze how those pathways might impact system reliability, costs, and employment. The project culminated in a report to assist the state with policy making to continue decarbonization efforts.
In 2019, Colorado set economy-wide goals of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 50% by 2030 and 90% by 2050 from a 2005 baseline. In 2021, the state released the GHG Pollution Reduction Roadmap updating the GHG goals to achieve a 75% reduction by 2040 and reaching net zero by 2050. CEO retained Ascend to evaluate how Colorado could achieve zero carbon or near zero emissions in the state’s electric sector by 2040.
In collaboration with CEO, Ascend leveraged its PowerSIMM™ Platform to model six scenarios that showed potential paths towards decarbonizing Colorado's electric sector by 2040. The analysis relied on resource technologies currently available or projected to be market-ready by 2040. PowerSIMM’s capacity expansion module, Automated Resource Selection (ARS), provided the least-cost resource mix for each scenario in replacing fossil fuel resources with clean energy. Ascend’s high-resolution analytical approach included modeling resource dispatch across the state to serve load on an hourly basis, with transmission limits and market interactions. In addition, Ascend’s methodology used renewable generation sources based on historical data rather than average profiles that repeat each year.
To provide a cost comparison, Ascend calculated net present value of capital costs, fuel costs, and imported energy for each scenario. PowerSIMM provided reliability analysis to ensure all scenarios met the North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s (NERC) standard for meeting load with no less than 1 day of shortfall over ten years. Across all scenarios, Ascend modeled electric load growth based on economic and population growth, as well as by shifts to electric vehicles, building electrification, and electrification of oil and gas end uses.
By integrating physical conditions with financial outcomes, Ascend’s comprehensive, weather-correlated approach to modeling demonstrated Colorado can move to a reliable, affordable, and clean electrical grid by 2040. Ascend modeled the following scenarios:
Ascend analysis showed across all scenarios, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions drop to near zero in the early 2030s as Colorado retires all coal and the share of gas generation drops to zero or near-zero levels, as shown in Figure 1. The baseline, least-cost, 'Economic Deployment' scenario, which assumes implementation of the state’s existing clean energy planning framework and other existing state and federal energy policies, reduces emissions by 97.7% from in-state generation by 2040 while also achieving near zero emissions in nitrous oxide (NOx) and sulfur oxide (SOx).
Though all seven scenarios provided pathways to the deep decarbonization of Colorado's electric power sector by 2040, Ascend analysis revealed significant cost differences, shown in Figure 2, driven largely by resource mix. The six scenarios that provided pathways to zero in-state emissions produced costs that ranged from 20-42% more expensive than the Economic Deployment scenario. The results demonstrated the high cost of decarbonizing the last bit of emissions indicating that Colorado may have more cost-effective opportunities for GHG reductions outside the power sector. The Economic Deployment reached a 97.7% reduction in GHG emissions from in-state generation below 2005 levels by 2040 with existing policies.
Ascend worked closely with CEO in an iterative process that took into account feedback from key state stakeholders, including large utilities, environmental advocacy groups, municipal utilities, and others. The study will inform and validate subsequent policy discussions and decisions, both within the Governor's Office and the state legislature.
The PowerSIMM™ energy analytics platform offers portfolio management, resource planning, and valuation capabilities leveraging Ascend’s high-resolution analytic approach and Market Intelligence. Contact us to learn more.
Ascend Analytics is the leading provider of market intelligence and analytics solutions for the energy transition. The company's offerings enable decision makers in power development and supply procurement to maximize the value of planning, operating, and managing risk for renewable, storage, and other assets. From real-time to 30-year horizons, their forecasts and insights are at the foundation of over $50 billion in project financing assessments. Ascend provides energy market stakeholders with the clarity and confidence to successfully navigate the rapidly shifting energy landscape.