Let's Connect
Contact us
Thank you for reaching out, we will be in touch shortly!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
.png)
For the week of November 5th – 11th: ERCOT will experience stronger market prices on the 7th while CAISO continues to shift to an early winter pattern with slightly stronger morning peaks.
In ERCOT, non-spin and energy discharge is the name of the game on the 7th as higher net load (plus outages) levels will present profitable HE18 opportunities.
In CAISO, renewable production and temperature will fluctuate throughout the state. Operators should begin paying attention to morning peaks and consider midnight SoC adjustments for day-ahead optimization.
The seventh of November should be the most profitable day of the week across most nodes in ERCOT. Net load peaks above 50 GW with 25+ GW of outages should push day-ahead prices to healthy levels. Operators should target a mixture of non-spin and day-ahead energy for the peak, which has bumped up to HE18 on account of daylight savings. The SmartBidder Mt. Blue Sky strategy is well equipped to handle higher price action and timing shift. Schedule time now to speak to your analyst about how SmartBidder strategies will adapt to RTC+B market changes, effective December 5th.
ERCOT calmed down last week as peak net loads settled near 40GW and real-time prices rarely jumped above $80/MWh. In a reversal from the fireworks of the previous week, average daily DART spreads were positive every day except November 1st when the real-time price stayed above the day-ahead for the entire evening as net load ramped down more slowly than usual. The positive DART spreads were supported by high renewable generation that led to cheap charging opportunities in the real-time markets on October 29th and 31st as well as November 2nd and 3rd. Consistent morning peaks have been slower to materialize in ERCOT than in CAISO, but the morning of November 1st demonstrates that now is a great time to discuss preserving SoC for morning peaks with your dedicated SmartBidder analyst.
Net load plus outages continues creeping towards 50GW, leaving the door open for more volatility in CAISO. Wind generation will pick back up to start the week, making up for some of the depressed solar on the 5th before declining again on November 8th. Last week, this combination of outages and low renewable generation led to strong real-time prices, and operators can continue to look for the absolute highest prices in the real-time markets, especially when net load is highest at the start and end of the week. Even with increasing real-time prices, leveraging ancillaries remains the best way to compete with TB4, so SmartBidder’s Mt. Shasta remains the best strategy for optimizing bids across all products and markets.
Last week in CAISO was a prime example of the morning and evening peaks that we expect to continue through the end of fall and into winter. Starting on October 30th, real-time prices consistently eclipsed day-ahead on both sides of solar hours with the highest prices coming in around $70/MWh on the morning of Halloween. Once again, there was a predictable opportunity to charge at negative midday prices on November 2nd which allowed savvy operators to supplement their profits while building SoC for more evening prices near $70 in the real-time markets. Although the real-time markets were slightly more lucrative overall, DART spreads rarely exceeded $20/MWh, meaning strategies utilizing SmartBidder’s opportunity cost bidding framework were especially effective at capturing real-time price action while locking in profits on low-volatility days like the 29th.
The information provided in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice. Trading in energy markets carries inherent risks and short and medium-term forecasts are always subject to change and revision.
For the week of November 5th – 11th: ERCOT will experience stronger market prices on the 7th while CAISO continues to shift to an early winter pattern with slightly stronger morning peaks.
In ERCOT, non-spin and energy discharge is the name of the game on the 7th as higher net load (plus outages) levels will present profitable HE18 opportunities.
In CAISO, renewable production and temperature will fluctuate throughout the state. Operators should begin paying attention to morning peaks and consider midnight SoC adjustments for day-ahead optimization.
The seventh of November should be the most profitable day of the week across most nodes in ERCOT. Net load peaks above 50 GW with 25+ GW of outages should push day-ahead prices to healthy levels. Operators should target a mixture of non-spin and day-ahead energy for the peak, which has bumped up to HE18 on account of daylight savings. The SmartBidder Mt. Blue Sky strategy is well equipped to handle higher price action and timing shift. Schedule time now to speak to your analyst about how SmartBidder strategies will adapt to RTC+B market changes, effective December 5th.
ERCOT calmed down last week as peak net loads settled near 40GW and real-time prices rarely jumped above $80/MWh. In a reversal from the fireworks of the previous week, average daily DART spreads were positive every day except November 1st when the real-time price stayed above the day-ahead for the entire evening as net load ramped down more slowly than usual. The positive DART spreads were supported by high renewable generation that led to cheap charging opportunities in the real-time markets on October 29th and 31st as well as November 2nd and 3rd. Consistent morning peaks have been slower to materialize in ERCOT than in CAISO, but the morning of November 1st demonstrates that now is a great time to discuss preserving SoC for morning peaks with your dedicated SmartBidder analyst.
Net load plus outages continues creeping towards 50GW, leaving the door open for more volatility in CAISO. Wind generation will pick back up to start the week, making up for some of the depressed solar on the 5th before declining again on November 8th. Last week, this combination of outages and low renewable generation led to strong real-time prices, and operators can continue to look for the absolute highest prices in the real-time markets, especially when net load is highest at the start and end of the week. Even with increasing real-time prices, leveraging ancillaries remains the best way to compete with TB4, so SmartBidder’s Mt. Shasta remains the best strategy for optimizing bids across all products and markets.
Last week in CAISO was a prime example of the morning and evening peaks that we expect to continue through the end of fall and into winter. Starting on October 30th, real-time prices consistently eclipsed day-ahead on both sides of solar hours with the highest prices coming in around $70/MWh on the morning of Halloween. Once again, there was a predictable opportunity to charge at negative midday prices on November 2nd which allowed savvy operators to supplement their profits while building SoC for more evening prices near $70 in the real-time markets. Although the real-time markets were slightly more lucrative overall, DART spreads rarely exceeded $20/MWh, meaning strategies utilizing SmartBidder’s opportunity cost bidding framework were especially effective at capturing real-time price action while locking in profits on low-volatility days like the 29th.
The information provided in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice. Trading in energy markets carries inherent risks and short and medium-term forecasts are always subject to change and revision.
Ascend Analytics is the leading provider of market intelligence and analytics solutions for the power industry.
The company’s offerings enable decision makers in power supply, procurement, and investment markets to plan, operate, monetize, and manage risk across any energy asset portfolio. From real-time to 30-year horizons, their forecasts and insights are at the foundation of over $50 billion in project financing assessments.
Ascend provides energy market stakeholders with the clarity and confidence to successfully navigate the rapidly shifting energy landscape.
Products
Consulting
©2025 Ascend Analytics. All rights reserved. Privacy Policy.
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.svg){kind=small}
.webp){kind=small}