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Ascend has been covering the ERCOT energy market for over two decades. We have seen weather extremes that lead to energy market volatility, where generation and storage assets operate to the benefit of the grid, energy customers, and asset owners. This week’s massive flooding, now claiming over 100 victims, is a terrible and sobering reminder of the destructive power of weather, where we are left feeling powerless in the face of such forces.
We are still publishing our market insights for Texas and CAISO this week so that our stakeholders can operate their assets to the benefit of the larger system. We continue to hold hope for recovery to that region and for the many families so tragically affected by this event.
For the week of July 10th -17th, strong wind production in ERCOT will moderate volatility despite slightly warmer weather while CAISO net load will tick up to a simmering 34 GW on the 11th.
In ERCOT, subdued market conditions will be sustained in ERCOT this week as moderately high wind production will keep net load peaks under 60 GW. Hub prices are unlikely to top $100/MWh, barring major wind forecast misses or congestion.
In CAISO, the evening of July 11 is shaping up to be the most interesting day in CAISO this week as net load will top its 2025 summer-to-date record of 32.9 GW and make its way up to 34 GW. Operators should target full energy base points during peak hours. SmartBidder is readily able to hedge between day-ahead energy and real-time energy participation based on the DART probability forecast.
Another wind surge will crash peak net load levels this weekend and produce benign market prices across the hubs. With fewer thermal resources on outage and lower ancillary services (AS) procurement volumes during the evening peak, middling net load days in July are even more bitter to swallow week after week than they were in May or even June. Asset optimizers should feel comfortable offering their AS opportunistically relative to the value of real-time (or day-ahead) energy discharge. Not clearing into sub $10/MW AS products during the peak is not paramount as it provides significantly more flexibility and upside to chase real-time energy spikes that could materialize anywhere between the HE20 – HE22 window. TheSmartBidder Mt. Blue Sky strategy with 2 hours of opportunistic re-solves in the day-ahead timeframe will execute this strategy skillfully.
The real-time energy price outperformance up to $300/MWh prices was a solid start to the month. Day-ahead prices on the 1st of just over $100/MWh captured about a 4x premium on RRS and ECRS prices peaking at $24/MWh. Even so, the perfect foresight chart below shows that even with the substantial premium in energy over AS, the “perfect hindsight of realized prices” optimization decision is to still participate in ECRS/RRS in HE21, non-spin in HE22, and reg-up in HE23 to capture additional AS capacity payments while enabling full real-time energy discharge during those same hours.
CAISO is bracing for its first real taste of summer heat this week, as elevated temperatures are expected across the state heading into the weekend—with some areas forecasted to see triple digits for multiple days. The key highlight is the evening of July 11th, when net load is projected to reach around 34GW—nearly 2 GW higher than any day thus far in 2025. The open question remains:how high will the day-ahead market settle? ~$100/MWh smells about right three days out.
So far,CAISO has not experienced any substantial real-time volatility this year. Even on the highest net load days to-date (May 30th and June 30th), day-ahead discharging during the evening peak has remained favorable for a 4-hour BESS.Ascend continues to recommend a strategy weighted toward the day-ahead market, expecting the premium for discharging in day-ahead to outweigh the potential gains from holding out for real-time volatility.
Real-time prices bounced around like a beach ball in the wind last week in CAISO, offering operators little confidence in what the next day might bring. Both July 1st and 2nd had similar midday net load volumes, but actual load diverged significantly: on the 1st, it came in nearly 500 MW above forecast, while on the 2nd, it was around 800 MW below. This divergence led to elevated mid-day real-time prices on the 1st, while the 2nd saw an unprecedented charging window—real-time prices came in ~$30/MWh below their day-ahead counterparts. For now, the relative consistency and premium of day-ahead pricing make it the preferred strategy—and likely will remain so until net load pushes into the upper 30 GW range.
The information provided in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice. Trading in energy markets carries inherent risks and short and medium-term forecasts are always subject to change and revision.
Ascend has been covering the ERCOT energy market for over two decades. We have seen weather extremes that lead to energy market volatility, where generation and storage assets operate to the benefit of the grid, energy customers, and asset owners. This week’s massive flooding, now claiming over 100 victims, is a terrible and sobering reminder of the destructive power of weather, where we are left feeling powerless in the face of such forces.
We are still publishing our market insights for Texas and CAISO this week so that our stakeholders can operate their assets to the benefit of the larger system. We continue to hold hope for recovery to that region and for the many families so tragically affected by this event.
For the week of July 10th -17th, strong wind production in ERCOT will moderate volatility despite slightly warmer weather while CAISO net load will tick up to a simmering 34 GW on the 11th.
In ERCOT, subdued market conditions will be sustained in ERCOT this week as moderately high wind production will keep net load peaks under 60 GW. Hub prices are unlikely to top $100/MWh, barring major wind forecast misses or congestion.
In CAISO, the evening of July 11 is shaping up to be the most interesting day in CAISO this week as net load will top its 2025 summer-to-date record of 32.9 GW and make its way up to 34 GW. Operators should target full energy base points during peak hours. SmartBidder is readily able to hedge between day-ahead energy and real-time energy participation based on the DART probability forecast.
Another wind surge will crash peak net load levels this weekend and produce benign market prices across the hubs. With fewer thermal resources on outage and lower ancillary services (AS) procurement volumes during the evening peak, middling net load days in July are even more bitter to swallow week after week than they were in May or even June. Asset optimizers should feel comfortable offering their AS opportunistically relative to the value of real-time (or day-ahead) energy discharge. Not clearing into sub $10/MW AS products during the peak is not paramount as it provides significantly more flexibility and upside to chase real-time energy spikes that could materialize anywhere between the HE20 – HE22 window. TheSmartBidder Mt. Blue Sky strategy with 2 hours of opportunistic re-solves in the day-ahead timeframe will execute this strategy skillfully.
The real-time energy price outperformance up to $300/MWh prices was a solid start to the month. Day-ahead prices on the 1st of just over $100/MWh captured about a 4x premium on RRS and ECRS prices peaking at $24/MWh. Even so, the perfect foresight chart below shows that even with the substantial premium in energy over AS, the “perfect hindsight of realized prices” optimization decision is to still participate in ECRS/RRS in HE21, non-spin in HE22, and reg-up in HE23 to capture additional AS capacity payments while enabling full real-time energy discharge during those same hours.
CAISO is bracing for its first real taste of summer heat this week, as elevated temperatures are expected across the state heading into the weekend—with some areas forecasted to see triple digits for multiple days. The key highlight is the evening of July 11th, when net load is projected to reach around 34GW—nearly 2 GW higher than any day thus far in 2025. The open question remains:how high will the day-ahead market settle? ~$100/MWh smells about right three days out.
So far,CAISO has not experienced any substantial real-time volatility this year. Even on the highest net load days to-date (May 30th and June 30th), day-ahead discharging during the evening peak has remained favorable for a 4-hour BESS.Ascend continues to recommend a strategy weighted toward the day-ahead market, expecting the premium for discharging in day-ahead to outweigh the potential gains from holding out for real-time volatility.
Real-time prices bounced around like a beach ball in the wind last week in CAISO, offering operators little confidence in what the next day might bring. Both July 1st and 2nd had similar midday net load volumes, but actual load diverged significantly: on the 1st, it came in nearly 500 MW above forecast, while on the 2nd, it was around 800 MW below. This divergence led to elevated mid-day real-time prices on the 1st, while the 2nd saw an unprecedented charging window—real-time prices came in ~$30/MWh below their day-ahead counterparts. For now, the relative consistency and premium of day-ahead pricing make it the preferred strategy—and likely will remain so until net load pushes into the upper 30 GW range.
The information provided in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice. Trading in energy markets carries inherent risks and short and medium-term forecasts are always subject to change and revision.
Ascend Analytics is the leading provider of market intelligence and analytics solutions for the power industry. The company’s offerings enable decision makers in power supply, procurement, and investment markets to plan, operate, monetize, and manage risk across any energy asset portfolio. From real-time to 30-year horizons, their forecasts and insights are at the foundation of over $50 billion in project financing assessments. Ascend provides energy market stakeholders with the clarity and confidence to successfully navigate the rapidly shifting energy landscape.
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