NYISO and ISO-NE Forecast Preview: On Again Off (Shore) Again Relationships

April 10, 2024

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Despite aggressive clean energy mandates in New York and the New England states, cost concerns have begun to test policy commitments. Rising peak demand, increasing capacity prices, a shift to winter peaks, and a scarcity of capacity resources further complicates the renewable energy development outlook in New York ISO (NYISO) and New England ISO (ISO-NE).

In a recent webinar, Dr. Gary Dorris, CEO of Ascend Analytics, and Dr. Brent Nelson, Managing Director of Markets and Strategy, discussed key developments, updates, and complications in northeastern energy markets, as well as Ascend's latest market forecasts for NYISO and ISO-NE.

Key Takeaways

  • While policy support for clean energy goals remain robust, even progressive policymakers have publicly expressed concern about high offshore wind costs. With expensive resources needed to meet decarbonization goals, policy adherence and cost sensitivity in NYISO and ISO-NE will need to be monitored.
  • While recent headwinds related to inflation, interest rates, and supply chain woes have been disruptive to in-process or previously contracted offshore wind projects, many of these projects will be resubmitted in future procurements in order to help meet aggressive clean energy mandates.
  • Resubmitted offshore wind projects will see some inflation protection through cost indexing, and bidders will also likely price in the potential costs of breaking contracts and larger buffers to reflect off-takers' unwillingness to renegotiate, ultimately driving higher offer prices.
  • Renewable resource constraints coupled with a restrictive regulatory environment severely limit the low-cost supply options available to meet clean energy demand in NYISO and ISO-NE.
  • Underpinned by analysis from Ascend Market Intelligence™, the webinar offers guidance for where, what, and when to add new capacity resources in NYISO and ISO-NE.

Access the full webinar now.

Interested in Learning More?  

AscendMI™ (Ascend Market Intelligence) delivers proprietary power market forecasts that have been trusted in hundreds of projects and resource planning activities, supporting over $25 billion in project financing assessments. Contact us to learn more.

About Ascend Analytics

Ascend Analytics, an innovative leader at the forefront of the energy transition, offers advanced software and consulting services that capture the evolving and real-time dynamics of energy markets. The company provides its customers with optimized and comprehensive decision analysis that covers everything from long-term planning to real-time operations in the electric power supply industry.

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